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Archive for August 19th, 2011

West Memphis Free

Posted by Brett Kincaid on August 19, 2011

By now you have undoubtedly heard that Damien Echols, Jason Baldwin, and Jessie Misskelley, Jr. have all been released from prison.  The three men – who were only teenagers when they were arrested and tried – were convicted in the 1993 slayings of three West Memphis, Ark. boys.  Known collectively as the West Memphis Three, Echols, Baldwin, and Misskelley have long maintained their innocence.

Mara Leveritt has been one of the WM3’s biggest advocates over these past 18 years.  Today she gets to write a story for the Arkansas Times that she must have dreamed of writing every night for the better part of 2 decades.

With this agreement, Echols, Baldwin and Misskelley leave court as convicted murderers who have served an amount of time in prison that state officials accept as sufficient. However, all three preserve the right to attempt to clear their names in the future by bringing new evidence to court.

Like much of this case, today’s agreement surpasses extraordinary. This may be the first time in this country that inmates sentenced to life — much less one sentenced to death — have been removed from their prisons in shackles and handcuffs and freed within 24 hours based on a plea agreement.

It’s a remarkable story.  The West Memphis Three have maintained their innocence, saying “confessions” were coerced and fabrications.  Up until the last day of their lives behind bars, the fact that the three must plead guilty in order to obtain their freedom – an ironic situation if there ever was one – made it difficult to accept the deal.

 At the news conference, Echols embraced Jason Baldwin, who refused a deal to testify against Echols in their 1994 trial and who joined the plea deal on Echols’ behalf though he objected to being forced to plead guilty.

Prosecutors have a different perspective on today’s decision, although they do all seem to agree that justice has ultimately been served.  It is a decision that will define the careers of the prosecuting attorney Scott Ellington and Judge David Laser.  In many ways, this looks like a public relations decision for Mr. Ellington.  He and his office (and his predecessors) save their convictions.  They also avoid a potential – if not likely – acquittal if the three men received new trials.  The decision by no means indicates Mr. Ellington believes the three are innocent.

In light of these circumstances I decided to entertain plea offers that were being proposed by the defense. I NEVER considered ANY arrangement that would negate the verdicts of those two juries. Guilt or Innocence was NEVER ON THE TABLE.

Today’s proceeding allows the defendants the freedom of speech to SAY they are innocent, but the FACT is, they just plead GUILTY. I strongly believe that the interests of justice have been served today.

Like many folks today, you’re probably wondering how a person can plead guilty – to capital murder no less – only to be released hours later.  It is highly unusual, especially given these circumstances.  The deal is referred to as an Alford agreement, taking its name from a Supreme Court decision – North Carolina v. Alford.  From CNN.com:

“In a nutshell, you are pleading guilty not because you admit that you did something wrong but because you are concerned the state has enough evidence to prove you guilty,” attorney B.J. Bernstein said. “This is a common thing in tough cases, where a defendant is just adamant; I didn’t do it, I didn’t do it, I didn’t do it. They won’t confess to it, but the evidence is so strong they are going to lose.”

The day’s events, first leaked late Thursday, are nothing short of extraordinary.  For many people it’s a day to rejoice.  For others it’s a day filled with anger and frustration.  For all of us, it should certainly be a day of reflection.

May 5, 1993, three 8-year-old boys – Stevie Branch, Michael Moore, and Christopher Byers – disappeared from their West Memphis, Arkansas, neighborhood.  The next afternoon their bodies were found in the densely wooded area at Robin Hood Hills.  The fact that the boys were dead is tragic in an of itself.  The condition of the bodies, though, defies comprehension.  All three had been bound – their wrists tied to their ankles, both behind their backs – stripped, and savaged.  Christopher Byers genitals had been mutilated, although questions remain whether that action was the result of the murderer or predatory animals attacking the body postmortem.

Byers official cause of death was determined by the Arkansas State Crime Lab as blood loss.  The other two boys drowned.  The three boys’ clothing was strewn throughout the crime scene.  While evidence of sexual assault of the boys remains inconclusive, investigators recovered sperm DNA in the pants of one of the victims.

The evidence – how it was handled, examined, and interpreted – continue to create debate about the validity of the convictions of Echols, Baldwin, and Misskelley.

What is lost in all today’s coverage of the release of the WM3 is that those three boys – Stevie Branch, Michael Moore, and Christopher Byers – were brutally murdered more than 18 years ago.  They would all be 26-years old by now.  Their killer or killers very likely walk the streets today.

The WM3 have become victims in this tragedy.  Whether they committed the crimes or not – I tend to think not, but I am not certain – the three were railroaded by the system.  They undoubtedly deserved new trials.  The fact that they now breathe free air is a just and fair thing, in my opinion.

Let us not, though, forget the other West Memphis Three.  Rest in peace, Stevie, Michael & Christopher.  You are the original victims, dying in a manner that no living creature should ever endure.

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Today’s Money Tip

Posted by Brett Kincaid on August 19, 2011

With the stock market going insane on us, sports gambling may be the most secure financial investment in 2011.  If you know what you’re doing, that is.  (And only in legal gambling zones, people.  We’re not encouraging illegal behavior, here.)  Our friends over at Grantland.com had yet another winning idea, and now have a writer living in Las Vegas for the coming year.  His name is Bill Barnwell, and he has a background in advanced statistical metrics.  He came to Grantland after a stint at Football Outsiders, one of the many SABR sites out there.

His goal is to 1) survive living in Las Vegas for a year and 2) write about everything that happens in Sin City.  He’s 27-years-old, single, and gets to live in and write about the one place in America where people are encouraged to lose their minds and throw out the rulebook to their own lives.  Simply put, he has the best job in the world.

Back to gambling…

Barnwell dissected the early NFL prop bets today, focusing on team over/under win totals.  For long-term investors, this is right up your alley.  The over/under prop is the gambling equivalent of a medium-risk bond, where as Sunday betting is like day trading for most gamblers.  There is less exposure, you aren’t exposed to fluke swings at the same rate as you are in a single game, and you can occasionally guarantee a payout if you hawk the odd movements each day.  You aren’t likely to hit a big score on one of these bets, but you could make sure to get some of your money back after the season’s over – after you lost your entire bankroll on Sundays during the season.

Today, Barnwell looks at the odds for the season win total over/under prop bets after Week 1 of the NFL preseason.  As you can see, the money is already shifting quite a bit.  Given all of their activity in the offseason, the Eagles are of course a team getting a lot of action.  My guess is after last night’s lackluster performance on national television, the numbers have shifted again this morning.

RISING

Philadelphia Eagles
OPENING LINE: 10 wins, Over -120, Under EVEN
NOW: 10.5 wins, Over -135, Under +115

This is one the whole family can figure out. As a reminder, the Eagles signed Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Harris, Ronnie Brown, and traded for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. As you might suspect, this boosted their odds while harshing the market for their NFC East rivals. The under on the Giants line of 9.5 wins started at -115 and has fallen to -140, while the Redskins went from being at even money to finish under 6.5 wins to -130 to finish under six wins.

Note that both the Eagles’ and Redskins’ lines have shifted by a half-win. That might not seem like a huge difference, but it can be enormous in a season that holds just 16 games. Before, a 10-win season for the Eagles would have been a push, returning the bettor his/her investment without any profit or loss. Now it’s a loss. Since the last strike season, in 1987, only 21.5 percent of teams have won 11 games or more. 11.4 percent of teams, more than half that total, have won exactly 10 games. A lot of things have to go right for a team — even as one as good as the Eagles — to win 11 or more games in a season. Having the ability to push on a 10-win total is an enormous advantage for the bettor. While the Eagles certainly look like world-beaters right now, this is a perfect example of the market falling in love with a series of moves. This is still a team with holes on defense and a weak offensive line, and there’s probably some value in betting against the consensus here. On the other hand, occasionally you try doing this and end up betting the under on the 2007 Patriots.

 

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